Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Maintained Delivery Logic Dominance, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Stabilized at Highs [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM April 13 update:

During the morning session, the SHFE copper 2604 contract opened lower and then moved sideways in a fluctuating trend. The opening price was 99,250 yuan/mt. After opening, prices quickly dropped to a low of 98,500 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 98,300 yuan/mt and 98,400 yuan/mt. Prices subsequently pulled back, fluctuating between 98,600 yuan/mt and 98,900 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 98,880 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 100 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper near-month import profit margin was at a loss of 340 yuan/mt to 250 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 2.76, up 0.06 MoM, and the purchasing sentiment was 2.7, down 0.16 MoM.. At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered standard-quality copper at premiums of 50-80 yuan/mt, with Lufang, JCC, etc. quoted at premiums of 60-70 yuan/mt, Dongnan Tiefeng, Zijin, Jinchuan ISA Yongchang, etc. at premiums of 50-60 yuan/mt, and Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, Jinfeng quoted at ex-factory premiums of 60-70 yuan/mt. High-quality copper Jintun (plate) was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 80-60 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading period, suppliers held a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with no significant price changes. High-quality copper Jinchuan (plate), Guixi, and Jintun (plate) were traded at premiums of 80-110 yuan/mt. Intraday, some suppliers engaged in offloading behavior, selling part of their inventory at low prices, but this did not suppress spot premiums in the spot market.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue its relatively strong pattern. In terms of market performance, although some suppliers offloaded cargo at low prices intraday, this did not suppress spot premiums, and overall quotes remained firm, reflecting strong support below current premium levels. From a delivery logic perspective, as the delivery date draws closer, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts still maintains a certain width, and suppliers' willingness to hold open interest for delivery persists, providing support for spot premiums. In addition, some suppliers may begin to make tentative offers against the next-month contract tomorrow, and market focus will gradually shift to pricing after the contract rollover. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow.